Analysis on the Energy Demand, CO2 and Pollutant Emissions, and Health Benefits from Urban Road Transport Sector: A Case Study of Shenyang

Abstract

As society develops and urbanization accelerates, energy requirement and environmental emissions in the road transport field have expanded in Shenyang, China. It is necessary to look at its future energy needs and environmental emission trends. In this work, we have used the LEAP model to account for the energy requirement and environmental emissions from 2017 to 2030 under five scenarios for the road transport sector in Shenyang. Additionally, the intake fraction approach was applied to estimate the health effects and financial damages of NO_X, SO₂, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 emissions. The results indicate that the energy required in 2030 will reach 8.18~10.65 Mtce in various scenarios. By 2030, under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the emissions of CO₂, CO, SO₂, NO_X, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 will be 31089.51, 1794.4, 20.59, 205.88, 6.6 and 6.5 kt, respectively. Regarding health benefits, financial damage caused by NO_X, SO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 emissions will reach RMB 8.594, 0.117, 1.013, and 1.566 billion in 2030 under the BAU scenario. Moreover, the development of energy-efficient and new energy automobiles is the best means of reducing energy demand and environmental emissions; thus, this approach should be paid special attention when developing future energy efficiency and emission abatement policies for road transport.

Received: 21 January 2023 | Revised: 29 April 2023 | Accepted: 20 May 2023

Conflicts of Interest

Qiang Yue is an Editorial Board Member for Green and Low-Carbon Economy, and was not involved in the editorial review or the decision to publish this article. The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest to this work.

Data Availability Statement

Data available on request from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.