Spatiotemporal Variations and Trends of Atmospheric Parameters Influencing Coastal Resilience in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh

Abstract

Cox's Bazar, located on the southeastern coast of Bangladesh, is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change due to its position along the Bay of Bengal. This region's high dependence on sectors such as fishing, agriculture, and tourism amplifies the research intent. The present study examines changes in major weather variables, including air temperature, surface pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation, over the period 2015–2024. High-resolution reanalysis datasets, along with in situ observations, were utilized to examine monthly, seasonal, and interannual variability and assess their influence on local ecosystems, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first principal component (PC1) explains 99% of the total variance, reflecting a strong annual cycle driven by the monsoon. Average temperatures increased steadily from 22.5°C in 2015 to approximately 24.0°C in 2024. Humidity also increased, reaching 78.45% by 2024, whereas the previous was 77.95% in 2015. Wind speeds fluctuated seasonally, averaging 4.1 m/s in spring and peaking at 5.1 m/s in May. Precipitation varied widely, with annual totals reaching 2791.4 mm in 2024. Changes indicate more intense weather events and shifting rainfall patterns, increasing the risks of flooding, erosion, and stress on local resources. Variations in wind also highlight the potential for wind energy development. The findings underscore the critical need for adaptive coastal management that considers climate trends, ecosystem health, and community preparedness. Such insights provide a basis for guiding policies to protect livelihoods and improve long-term resilience in this vulnerable coastal region.

Received: 23 June 2025 | Revised: 11 September 2025 | Accepted: 28 Septembert 2025

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest to this work.

Data Availability Statement

The datasets used and analyzed in this study are publicly available from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS-ERA5: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/ and the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD: https://dataportal.bmd.gov.bd/). Processed datasets and plots are available upon reasonable request from the corresponding author.

Author Contribution Statement

Siraj Uddin Md Babar Chowdhury: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Validation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Resources, Data curation, Writing – original draft, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration. Anik Karmakar: Methodology, Software, Validation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Resources, Data curation, Writing – original draft, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration. K. M. Azam Chowdhury: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Validation, Formal analysis, Resources, Data curation, Writing – original draft, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration. Tabassum Hossain Tahsin: Investigation, Writing – review & editing. Abdullah Al Mamun Siddiqui: Validation, Resources, Writing – review & editing, Supervision. Tasin Sumaia Khan: Investigation, Resources, Data curation, Writing – review & editing, Visualization. Mohammad Rokan Uddin: Validation, Resources, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing, Visualization.