When the Tariffs Come: Ordinary Least Squaresas an Attention Mechanism Analysis and Rethinking Trinidad and Tobago's Export Strategy

Abstract

Abstract

This study provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of new US tariffs on Trinidad and Tobago's (T&T) non-hydrocarbon exports. Employing a novel hybrid methodology, ordinary least squares as an attention mechanism, the research empirically derives trade impact multipliers, combining the interpretability of traditional regression with the predictive power of neural networks. Analysis of data on the US imports from T&T over the 2001–2024 period reveals that while a substantial US$808 million of T&T's exports are subjected to tariffs, the direct impact of the tariffs is concentrated in non-hydrocarbon sectors, with a projected loss of approximately US$10 million. The manufactured goods section (Standard of International Trade Classification 6) is the most vulnerable, facing an estimated US$86 million decline. These findings highlight the exposure of T&T's export base. Consequently, the study advocates for the adoption and promotion of green packaging to serve as a non-price tool. The idea is that by aligning with global sustainability standards, green packaging can help T&T's exporters mitigate tariff disadvantages and reduce their vulnerability to trade policy shifts.

Received: 28 August 2025 | Revised: 27 November 2025 | Accepted: 8 January 2026

Conflicts of Interest

The author declares that he has no conflicts of interest to this work.

Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in WITS at https://wits.worldbank.org/, the Federal Reserve Bank database, Import Price Index (End Use): All Imports Excluding Fuels (IREXFUELS) at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IREXFUELS, OLS as an attention mechanism at https://github.com/doncharles005/OLSAM, and the CBTT database at https://www.central-bank.org.tt/data-center-block.

Author Contribution Statement

Don Charles: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Validation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Resources, Data curation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration.