The Analysis of Climate Risk Impacts on Food Price Volatility: Moderating Role of Green Innovation Technology

Abstract

The increasing temperature anomaly and greenhouse gas emission and other related climate-events have imposed serious threats to agricultural output, leading to volatility of commodity prices across the globe. This paper analyzes the asymmetry between climate risks, green innovation, and food price volatility in Nigeria. Time-series data were collected and analyzed using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in conjunction with non-linear autoregressive distributed lag modelspanning from 1990 to 2023. Data for the variables are generated from World Bank, World Development Indicators and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin online database. We regress climate risk measured by carbon emission (CO2) and global average temperature anomaly on food price index and incorporate green innovation technology as a moderating variable while renewable energy consumption and population growth rate as control variables. To ascertain the asymmetric impacts, temperature anomaly and carbon emission (CO2) were decomposed into positive (+ve) and negative (−ve) partial sums. We find that positive temperature (Temp+) and CO2 shocks significantly increase food price volatility in the long and short terms. Conversely, negative shocks in CO2 and temperature anomaly yield long-term volatility reduction, suggesting mitigation potentials. We also find that green innovation technology improves environmental quality and boost food production. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should encourage adoption of smart agricultural practices, build climate mitigation strategies that will improve environmental quality, and sustainable food production.

Received: 19 June 2025 | Revised: 22 September 2025 | Accepted: 11 November 2025

Conflicts of Interest

The author declares that he has no conflicts of interest to this work.

Data Availability Statement

The data that support this work are available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author.

Author Contribution Statement

Nuhu Musa: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Validation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Resources, Data curation, Writing—original draft, Writing—review & editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration.