Are Entrepreneurs Probabilists or Possibilists? Observing Opportunity as Possibilities, Probabilistically

Abstract

This paper explores uncertainty, possibility, and entrepreneurial inclination in entrepreneurship. It presents a novel probabilistic lens to comprehend uncertainty and its impact on entrepreneurial theory and practice, highlighted through analyzing decision-making behavior via the Monty Hall problem. The deterministic perspective is called into question when entrepreneurship is depicted as an agent whose outcomes are indeterminate and probabilistically predetermined. Entrepreneurs effectively handle risk and uncertainty, venturing into uncharted territories to attain possible benefits. The research distinguishes between probabilists, who base their decision-making on likelihoods, and possibilists, who investigate the attainable through imaginative potential. This possibilist approach incorporates concepts of contingency and potential, recognizing both the potential outcomes and the associated dangers, making a valuable contribution to practical application. Theoretically, this paper contributes to the entrepreneurship literature by offering the Many-Doors model as a tool for understanding the complex interplay between an individual’s inclination toward probability or possibility and their entrepreneurial decisions. This conceptual model functions as a link integrating elements of risk, uncertainty, and strategic choice, thereby broadening the theoretical frameworks used to analyze entrepreneurial behavior, potentially resulting in a more holistic understanding of entrepreneurial dynamics.

Received: 31 January 2024 | Revised: 25 April 2024 | Accepted: 14 May 2024

Conflicts of Interest

The author declares that he has no conflicts of interest to this work.

Data Availability Statement

No data was used in this research as this is a conceptual paper.

Author Contribution Statement

David Leong: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Validation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Resources, Data curation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration, Funding acquisition.